Research

Job Market Paper

Does Intelligence Shield Children from the Effects of Parental Unemployment?
Job Market Paper
  • Nurfatima Jandarova
Current literature offers several potential channels through which parental unemployment can affect children. In this paper, I provide new evidence based on variation across intelligence that identifies loss of human capital investment as the driving mechanism. I find that higher intelligence mitigates some of the impacts, but not all. Parental unemployment is more harmful to the education of children with higher intelligence. This forces them to start their careers at lower-paying jobs and continues to weigh down on their wages even later in life. Nevertheless, higher intelligence helps narrow the gap labour supply, job ranking and monthly earnings over time.
Paper Poster SSRN

Working papers

Selection and Roy Model
Working papers
We model the evolution of the distribution of genotypes in European populations over the past 14 thousand years. In our model, the evolution is driven by selection operating after a shift in the productivity of agriculture, induced by a well-documented climate change, in a standard Roy model in which individuals self-select into one of two sectors (agriculture or hunter-gathering). We then test the model in two data sets, one of ancient and one of modern DNA datasets, matching the observed distributions of genetic variables of interest (allele frequencies and lineages). The model extends a standard Wright-Fisher model. We estimate the model and find support for our main hypothesis, namely that a major shift in the distribution of allele frequencies (in a direction favouring higher cognitive skills) occurred after the climate warming at the end of the Younger Dryas (11,600 years BPE) made agriculture more productive than hunter-gathering. The general implication we draw is that historical transformations (in our case climate change and technological change) can affect the distribution of genotype and thus institutions, rather than the other way round.
Slides SSRN

Work in progress

Multiple Imputation of University Degree Attainment
Work in progress
Historically higher education in the UK has been shaped by a dual system: elite universities on the one hand and polytechnics and other higher education institutions on the other. Despite the for- mal equivalence of both degrees, the two institution types faced different financing, target populations, admission procedures and subjects taught. Nevertheless, in survey data they are often indis- tinguishable. In this paper, we differentiate the institution types among degree-holders using a multiple imputation technique in the UKHLS and BHPS datasets. We examine the validity of inference based on imputed values using Monte Carlo simulations. We also verify that the imputed values are consistent with university graduation rates computed using the universe of undergraduate students in the UK.

(draft available upon request)
  • EUI Microeconometrics working group (February 2020)
Fertility Choice and Intelligence in Developed Countries
Work in progress
We document that fertility may be negatively associated, at least in advanced societies, with higher intelligence, particularly for women. An explanation of the finding is provided in a model describing the choice of individuals (in particular women) facing a trade-off between parenthood and career concerns. With positive complementarity between intelligence and effort in education and career advancement, higher intelligence individuals, particularly women, will sacrifice parenthood to education. Thus, current education and labor market policies may be imposing an uneven penalty on more talented women. We test and find support for the model in a large data set for the UK (Understanding Society), using several alternative measures of fertility. Our results provide a new interpretation of the well documented fact in demographic studies that education is negatively associated with fertility: it is not education as an outcome, but as an aspiration that reduces fertility.

(draft available upon request)
Intelligence and political preferences
Work in progress
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